DPRData.com — DPR's Slide vs. The Full Picture

COMMUNITY ANALYSIS • MARCH 2026

DPR's Slide vs.
The Full Picture

What the Board didn't see in the March 5 Work Session presentation on gymnastics elimination and the Barcroft closure.

Finding 01

DPR manufactured the crisis.

Finding 02

The Board didn't get the full picture.

Finding 03

There are solutions DPR never tried.

⚠️ BAD MATH

Slides 15, 20 & 23

The $254K That Doesn't Add Up

DPR'S SLIDE

Repurposing Barcroft saves: $969,542 Presented as a single line item on Slide 15 — expense reduction of $2.29M offset by $1.32M revenue loss.

THE FULL PICTURE

But DPR's own detailed slides show: $715,467 Competitive gap: $312,129 (Slide 20)
Rec gap: $403,338 (Slide 23)

Where is the missing $254,075? Are facility costs being double-counted? Are other Barcroft programs included without disclosure? The Board was never shown a reconciliation.

⚠️

If DPR can't reconcile its own slides, every number in this presentation is in question.

✂️ STRIPPED OF CONTEXT

Slide 17

"Declining Participation" — Or Declining Service?

DPR'S SLIDE

Lists as ongoing challenges:

• Recruiting and retention
• Declining participation
• Operational deficits

Implies the community has lost interest in gymnastics.

THE FULL PICTURE

Participation isn't declining. DPR is declining to serve participants. 1,300 on waitlist Jane admitted in the session:

"Since 2022, we've never been fully staffed."— Jane Rudolph, DPR Director

59 classes cancelled in FY25. 51 classes cancelled in FY26. 100+ cancelled in FY22. Each cancellation reduces enrollment, which reduces revenue, which makes cost recovery look worse.

⚠️

This is a supply crisis manufactured by DPR's own staffing failures — not a demand problem.

✂️ STRIPPED OF CONTEXT

Slides 18 & 19

The Cost Recovery Paradox

DPR'S SLIDE

Competitive gymnastics targets 86–100% cost recovery (Level 4 on pyramid: "mostly individual benefit").

Methodology includes personnel, projected participation, program hours, overhead.

Does NOT include facility costs or booster association fees.

THE FULL PICTURE

Jane herself admitted:

"We recognize that it's time to take a fresh look at our cost recovery model to determine whether the methodology... [is] still appropriate."— Jane Rudolph, during the work session

You can't use a model you've admitted is broken to justify a $969K decision.

The pyramid also misclassifies competitive gymnastics. It treats it identically to adult fitness memberships — ignoring that competitive teams feed rec enrollment, supply coaching staff, and build the community that produced 4,920 petition signatures.

⚠️

DPR is citing a ruler it admits is broken. The Board deserves a credible methodology before making this decision.

✂️ STRIPPED OF CONTEXT

Slide 20

Competitive Teams: The 15% Fix

DPR'S SLIDE

FY25: 68% cost recovery $672K rev / $984K exp Shows a decade of cost recovery consistently below the 86% target. Frames competitive gymnastics as financially unsustainable.

Gap: $312,129

THE FULL PICTURE

AAPA/ATPA project FY26 revenue at ~$725K, putting cost recovery at ~74%.

          A 15% fee increase reaches 85% cost recovery.

          Competitive families have publicly stated they will accept this.

DPR never asked families if they'd pay more. Never communicated cost recovery goals. Last discussion with AAPA was 2+ years ago.

How many DPR programs have constituents volunteering to pay more?

⚠️

DPR chose elimination without ever testing the simplest solution: asking families to pay more. They said yes before anyone asked.

✂️ STRIPPED OF CONTEXT

Slide 23

Rec Classes: A Death Spiral DPR Created

DPR'S SLIDE

FY25: 57% cost recovery $527K rev / $931K exp Shows a collapse from 156% cost recovery in FY16 to 57% in FY25. Participation dropped from 3,746 (FY19) to 1,866 (FY25).

Gap: $403,338

THE FULL PICTURE

The cost recovery collapse tracks exactly with DPR's staffing crisis:

Can't hire instructors → cancel classes
Cancel classes → fewer enrollments
Fewer enrollments → less revenue
Less revenue → worse cost recovery
Worse cost recovery → "see, it's failing"

Meanwhile, Arlington rec fees are ~50% of private market rate. There's enormous room for fee increases while remaining affordable.

Classes run 5-6 kids with 2-3 coaches. USA Gymnastics allows 6:1 (preschool) and 8:1 (school-age). Efficient scheduling alone could dramatically increase capacity.

⚠️

DPR didn't just fail to fix the revenue problem — DPR IS the revenue problem. The staffing crisis created the cost recovery collapse.

🍒 CHERRY-PICKED DATA

Slide 25

Space Usage: Cherry-Picked Hours

DPR'S SLIDE

Shows Barcroft Gym 1 at 36 participants during 8am–12pm weekdays. Compares unfavorably to Lubber Run at 195.

Frames gymnastics equipment as "restricting flexibility" and making the space "difficult to use for other community activities."

Conclusion: facility underutilized.

THE FULL PICTURE

Community analysis using actual Rec Trac enrollment data shows peak usage of: 126 participants at 6:30pm on Tuesdays.

DPR selected 8am–12pm weekday hours — when ANY facility-based program shows low numbers. Evening and weekend usage tells a completely different story.

Calling gymnastics equipment a limitation is like saying basketball hoops restrict a gym's flexibility. The equipment IS the program.

⚠️

DPR measured utilization during the hours no one uses the gym, then concluded no one uses the gym.

🍒 CHERRY-PICKED DATA

Slide 26

The Survey Misdirection

DPR'S SLIDE

2026 PSMP survey results show gymnastics at 5% importance — near the bottom of 25 categories.

Presented alongside categories like "Fitness and wellness" (31%), "Nature programs" (29%), and "Aquatics" (21%).

Implied message: the community doesn't value gymnastics.

THE FULL PICTURE

Board Chair de Ferranti caught this in real time:

"Because if you have this demand, a signal from the community, 5% saying they want X... You get what I'm getting?"— Matt de Ferranti, Board Chair

DPR never compared investment per demand signal. What's the county's per-respondent spending on fitness vs. gymnastics? That comparison was never presented.

Separately, the FY2027 Budget Survey excluded gymnastics entirely — residents were never asked whether these programs should be cut. That's what our FOIA Request #3 is investigating.

⚠️

5% interest with 4,920 petition signatures and a 1,300-person waitlist. The survey doesn't match reality — so which one is wrong?

🍒 CHERRY-PICKED DATA

Slide 27

"Gymnastics Options" — DPR's List vs. Reality

BARCROFT

★ YOUR GYM

0 mi

YMCA Arlington

REC + COMP

3 mi

The Little Gym

REC ONLY TINY

4 mi

Kips Family

REC ONLY

5 mi

Dynamic Gymnastics

REC + COMP

7 mi

emPOWER Kids

REC ONLY

9 mi

Ready Set Gymnastics

RHYTHMIC

9 mi

Mosaic Gymnastics

RHYTHMIC

12 mi

Cardinal Gymnastics

REC + COMP

14 mi

Fairfax Gymnastics

REC + COMP

15 mi

PG County Sports

MARYLAND

15 mi

YMCA Bethesda

MARYLAND CAMPS ONLY

16 mi

Capital Gymnastics

REC + COMP

17 mi

Stafford County

51 mi

⚠️

DPR listed 13 "options" with no capacity data, no pricing, and no drive times. 5 can't even serve these athletes. This isn't analysis — it's padding.

What If DPR Had Served the Waitlist?

Revenue scenarios for rec gymnastics — with the demand DPR left on the table

Current (DPR)

57%

86% TARGET

57%

+ 25% of waitlist enrolled

72%

~72%

+ 50% of waitlist enrolled

83%

~83%

+ 50% waitlist + 15% fee increase

95%

~95%

💡

DPR's "unsustainable" program is within target range if they simply served the demand that already exists and adjusted fees to market norms.

01

DPR manufactured the crisis.

Staffing failures led to class cancellations. Cancellations reduced enrollment. Enrollment drops killed revenue. Revenue declines tanked cost recovery. Now DPR points to cost recovery to justify elimination.

The waitlist of 1,300 people proves the demand is real. The problem was never the market — it was management.

02

The Board didn't get the full picture.

A $254K math gap that was never reconciled. Space usage measured during hours no one is there. A list of "options" that includes a gym 50 miles away and a different sport. A survey cited without comparative investment analysis.

The Board was asked to make a $969K decision on incomplete data.

03

There are solutions DPR never tried.

15% fee increase — families already said yes. Waitlist conversion — revenue sitting on the table. Outsourced coaching — other DPR programs use this model. Break-session programming — camps, clinics, birthday parties. Adult classes during underutilized daytime hours.

DPR went straight to elimination without exhausting a single alternative.

What We're Asking the Board

Before voting to eliminate Arlington's most in-demand program, we ask the Board to consider:

1

Require DPR to reconcile the data. The $254K gap, the space usage methodology, and the options analysis all need transparent review.

2

Keep Barcroft open during the 12-month evaluation. Other programs got this runway. Gymnastics deserves it too.

3

Authorize a joint task force with the community to implement fee increases, staffing solutions, and a public-private partnership model.

Sign the Petition → SaveArlingtonGymnastics.com